A recent poll from the University of Houston's Hobby School shows Attorney General Ken Paxton slightly ahead of incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn in the runoff for his seat.
But by another measure – fundraising – Paxton is running behind both Cornyn and the Democratic Senate nominee, James Talarico.
Lauren McGaughy, who reports on Texas politics for The New York Times, says Paxton's troubles with money have more to do with donors wanting to save their money for the general election than with Paxton's past scandals. Listen to the interview in the player above or read the transcript below.
This transcript has been edited lightly for clarity:
Texas Standard: Are these fundraising troubles related to Paxton's political baggage: indictments, lawsuits from former staff and a contentious divorce, for example? Or is something else going on here.
Lauren McGaughy: You know, I think the story is a bit more complicated because voters in Texas, at least, have known about those issues, many of them for a long time, and have still continued to give and vote for Mr. Paxton.
So we spoke to a number of political consultants who said that this is a complicated race for big Republican donors. There's an incumbent, John Cornyn, who's being challenged by a popular MAGA favorite in Ken Paxton and it's difficult for them to choose a winner in a race that is this close because they may not want to be on the outs with the person who ends up winning if they choose the wrong guy.
So who are some of the big donors Paxton's relied on in the past who are on the sidelines so far?
We did an analysis of Paxton's state campaign fundraising. So this is looking back into fall 2021, right before he ran for reelection the last time as attorney general, and we looked at his top 25 donors and then reached out to those folks to see why most of them were deciding not to give in this race or not to give as much as they had.
These are people like Jerry Jones of the Dallas Cowboys, the founder of Buc-ee's — our beloved gas station chain — and a number of billionaire businessmen in Texas from all kinds of sectors, from telecom to oil and gas.
And we spoke to one who told us that his decision not to give more in the primary wasn't an endorsement against or for Ken Paxton. It was a decision to keep that money safe in a lockbox until the general election. He said what was important to him was beating James Talarico, the Democrat, and not as much who won the primary.
Well, what impact do we think these money troubles may be having on the Paxton campaign? Polls still show the race is very close, but Cornyn has outspent him by a lot.
This race is going to be a referendum on the power of money and how important it is.
Paxton has great name recognition with a conservative base that turns out in primary elections and turns out again if there's a runoff. And so we're gonna have to see whether these money troubles actually end up costing him this runoff election.
A number of consultants said he still looks pretty good despite the fundraising gap between him and Sen. Cornyn.
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Well, I mentioned Cornyn has outspent Paxton, but how are Cornyn and Democrat James Talarico doing in the money department?
They're both doing very well. You know, John Cornyn has been a senator for a long time. He has a very strong fundraising base and has been able to bring in millions of dollars. You know, I think our total count for all of his campaigns and a PAC supporting his candidacy was over $50 million.
James Talarico has outraised both Cornyn and Paxton in at least this year. So he's doing very well in the fundraising department. And that's a big deal for a Democrat in a state where Democrats haven't won for more than 30 years.
So Talarico is hoping that that money push and the fact that he does not have anyone he's running against right now in a Democratic runoff will give him some time and some cash to get his message out before November.
I want to dig into that Cornyn fundraising a bit, though. I mean, you mentioned that some, as far as donating to Paxton, are waiting until the general [election]. Is Cornyn not having that same issue?
You know, he still has a good fundraising base with national fundraising sources. And he does have some loyal fundraisers who have given big dollars to a political action fund that is supporting him.
This might be a little bit of the incumbent benefit here with folks saying, 'well, I'm going to give to John Cornyn because I've always given to him.' And that might be pushing him ahead a bit, but he does have connection to these national fundraising sources.
Paxton, as the challenger, may not be able to tap into at this time, unless he wins, and then consultants told us Paxton may be struggling to fundraise now, but if he pulls out a win in the runoff, they expect big Republican money to start flowing into his campaign ahead of November.
Well, I mentioned in the intro a couple of polls recently had Talarico beating either Cornyn or Paxton in November. Are Republicans taking that threat seriously and is that having any impact on fundraising?
I think they are. You know, some folks we talked to said that the general consensus, at least as of right now, is that Cornyn might be a stronger challenger to Talarico. He might do better against Talarico.
And some of the polls do show that Talarito has a narrower lead or is more flush with Cornyn than Paxton. And that might be hurting Paxton's ability to fundraise. And it might hurt his ability to fundraise if he wins in runoff. But you know, we won't know anything until November.
So this is a very interesting campaign. It's one of the most interesting campaign seasons since I moved to Texas a dozen years ago. And the uncertainty can make for excitement in some circles and anxiety in others.
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