With early voting beginning across Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by two percentage points among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race, according to a recent poll by the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs.
The survey shows Talarico with the support of 48% of likely voters, compared to 46% backing Paxton, with 3% for Libertarian Ted Brown and 3% still unsure.
The margin of error in the poll is 2%, making the result a statistical dead heat. However, Mark Jones of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, who coauthored the report, said Talarico's performance is the strongest late-campaign performance he's seen from a Texas Democrat in decades.
"Even in 2018, [Democratic nominee and then-U.S. Rep.] Beto O'Rourke was trailing [Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz] in virtually every poll at this point in the race," Jones said. "In contrast, in most polls being done, Talarico has an advantage. Sometimes it’s as small as two [percentage points], like in this poll, or one. In a few, it’s as high as three or four, but it’s rare to find a poll that’s not linked to some party or some organization which is at least implicitly or explicitly towards Ken Paxton that has Paxton up."
While the survey shows 98% of likely Democratic voters planning to vote for Talarico, only 88% of likely Republican voters said they plan to vote for Paxton. Six percent of Republican voters said they plan to vote for Talarico, compared to 1% of Democratic voters who plan to vote for Paxton.
"You put that together," Jones said, "and that’s the difference between Paxton being ahead by a few points and Talarico being ahead by a few points where he is today."
In addition, 60% of independents said they plan to vote for Talarico, compared to just 32% who said they plan to vote for Paxton.
Jones said three other major factors are weighing against the Republicans in the Senate contest: President Donald Trump'spoll numbers are underwater in Texas; Paxton is widely viewed as a controversial candidate; and Talarico is just as widely viewed as potentially playing a key role in helping the Democrats take back control of the U.S. Senate.
Virtually all the other statewide races examined in the survey show the Republican candidates leading their Democratic rivals by slimmer-than-usual margins for the GOP in Texas, but still well outside the margin of error. Jones said the combination of strong Republican voter identification, strong Republican financial advantages, and low name recognition for most candidates other than incumbent Gov. Greg Abbottand incumbent Lt. Gov. Dan Patrickis helping most GOP candidates overcome the White House's drag on the ticket.
"I think the only unknown for Republicans is will they be able to ensure that their voters actually turn out to the vote [this] cycle," Jones said. "And to the extent to which Republicans vote instead of staying home, Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick, [state Sen. and Attorney General candidate] Mayes Middleton, [state Comptroller] Don Huffines, and others should be in good shape, although they may be sweating a bit until midnight passes and they see where most of the early vote and Election Day vote has been cast."
The one other potential trouble spot Jones sees for Republicans is in the race for Texas Railroad Commissioner. Republican nominee Bo French has been embroiled in multiple scandals over social media posts over the past year and a half — the most recent being a screenshot of students of color at a University of Texas football game, which he claimed was evidence that "foreigners" were displacing Americans.
The new survey shows French leading his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Jon Rosenthal, by 45% to 43%, with Libertarian Arthur DiBianca at 2% and 10% of voters still unsure who they'll support.
"We do know that the more people learn about Bo French, the less they like Bo French," Jones said. "But if more than half of voters don’t know who Bo French is, that’s good for both French and bad for Jon Rosenthal, who by comparison also is not at all well-known, with close to three out of four likely voters having no idea who Rosenthal is."
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