Updated May 8, 2025 at 3:02 AM MDT
Of the states President Donald Trump won in 2024, Georgia is the only one with an incumbent Democratic senator defending a seat. Republicans see Georgia as their top pickup opportunity and saw term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp as the strongest candidate to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.
In the end, Republicans failed to land what they had been calling their top recruit for the Senate. This week, Kemp announced he would not run for the U.S. Senate in 2026.
Over the last few weeks, I have had many conversations with friends, supporters, and leaders across the country who encouraged me to run for the US Senate in 2026. I greatly appreciate their support and prayers for our family.
— Brian Kemp (@BrianKempGA) May 5, 2025
After those discussions, I have decided that being…
Senate Majority Leader John Thune and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, the National Republican Senatorial Committee chair, met with Kemp last month in Atlanta. Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts, a former governor himself, spoke with Kemp several times, including during a dinner at his home in Washington.
Kemp's choice scrambles the Senate race in Georgia, inviting what is likely to be a contentious and expensive primary. The two-term governor's decision to opt-out may also signal something broader about the fight for control of the Senate in 2026 and the status of the body itself.
Kemp 'absolutely without parallel'
"You can't hardly name another Republican who took on Trump and won and is still beloved by Republicans," says Georgia Republican strategist Brian Robinson. "It's absolutely without parallel."
After 2020, Kemp rebuffed Trump's plea for help overturning the election result. Trump then backed a primary challenge against the governor, who Kemp trounced before going on to soundly defeat Democrat Stacey Abrams for a second time. Before the end of the 2024 presidential campaign, the two men reconciled.
Democrats hope Trump's second term actions will boost them in the midterms, which have historically been difficult for the party in the White House. Democrats are facing a challenging Senate map in 2026, with few opportunities to flip Republican-held seats.
Ossoff soft-launched his reelection bid with strong words about the president.
"Georgia will bow to no king," Ossoff told an energetic Atlanta crowd last month.
An Atlanta Journal Constitution poll last week found Kemp neck and neck with Ossoff. The first-term Democrat led the other Republicans polled by a healthy margin.
"Ossoff's people are smart. They know the best player on the field has side-lined himself," Robinson says. "I'm envisioning corks popping and loud celebratory yells."
Kemp posted on X this week that running next year was "not the right decision" for him and his family.
Governors turned senators
Steve Wrigley served as chief of staff to the late Georgia Democratic Gov. Zell Miller, who then went on to the Senate, but declined to run for reelection.
"He told me once, 'I just don't have the personality where I want to be here for 20 years in the hopes of becoming a subcommittee chairman," Wrigley recalled.
Going from powerful chief executive to one of 100 in a polarized, sometimes paralyzed Senate was difficult for his old boss, Wrigley says.
"I think it was Joe Biden who was in the Senate at the time who told him, 'You know, a lot of you governors have difficulty transitioning to being a senator," Wrigley said.
That dynamic is more pronounced today. In Michigan, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer declined to run for an open senate seat. Colorado Democratic Sen. Michael Bennett is running for governor. In New Hampshire, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, another top GOP recruit, passed on a Senate run.
Jay Morgan, a veteran of Georgia Republican politics, says Congress has ceded a lot of power to the president.
"Trump is just manhandling the Congress right now," Morgan said. "The Congress has never been more irrelevant."
2026 race will soon start taking shape
In Georgia, the Republican Senate field had been frozen waiting for Kemp's decision. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene are among those not ruling out a run. Several other statewide officers and members of Congress have also teased potential Senate campaigns.
"The polling shows I can win the governor's primary or I can win the Senate primary or I can also continue to represent my district," Greene told NewsNation on Monday. "That is a choice I can make and I'll give it some thought."
The prospect of Greene's candidacy is giving many strategists flashbacks to the campaign of another polarizing Georgia Republican, former University of Georgia football player Herschel Walker, who lost to Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in a 2022 runoff.
The NRSC is deciding on a state-by-state basis whether to get involved in Republican primaries. They quickly endorsed a candidate in Michigan, seen as the other truly toss-up senate race. Trump won Michigan in 2024 and the incumbent Democratic senator, Gary Peters, is retiring.
As the most popular Republican in Georgia with a powerful political organization of his own, Kemp also signaled to supporters gathered at his annual Sea Island donor retreat on Monday that he may help shape the field.
"I spoke with President Trump and Senate leadership earlier today and expressed my commitment to work alongside them to ensure we have a strong Republican nominee who can win next November," Kemp wrote in his Monday announcement.
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