Two Democrats and two Republicans are trying to prove to their party's voters they're the best candidate to become the next Texas Attorney General. For Republicans, it's about who's the most MAGA. And for Democrats, it's who's the best person to sway voters in a new direction.
Ken Paxton is leaving the AG role behind to challenge U.S. Senator John Cornyn in the GOP primary runoff. He leaves behind an office that is known for being a conservative stronghold that fights for President Donald Trump's agenda.
The central question in the Republican primary for AG is who's the most loyal to Trump. Both State Senator Mayes Middleton and Congressman Chip Roy are both pointing to their conservative records as proof they're the best candidate to lead the charge on the conservative battleground.
"The AG is not just some lawyer," Middelton told KERA in an interview ahead of the primary election. "They're not just an appellate attorney. You're setting the conservative agenda for this entire state."
Roy told CBS News people on the left fear having him as AG. KERA reached out to Roy's campaign but was unable to set up an interview for this story.
"There's a lot of folks who would like to see me not be attorney general because they're afraid of what I would do to advance a conservative agenda for the people of Texas," he said.
Democrats, meanwhile, are laying the groundwork to convince voters it's time for a change after decades of Republican leadership. State Senator Nathan Johnson and former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski both say Paxton's pursuit of a political agenda while in office has been a disservice to Texans.
"We have partisan elections and we are elected in partisan contests," Jaworski said. "But the moment the election contest is over, you really do have to, as attorney general, pursue an agenda that serves all 32 million. And that is what Paxton has punted on. And so it has cost Texans a genuine office of Government."
Still, neither Jaworski nor Johnson would completely step away from the national stage if elected. Both said they'd join Democratic attorneys general across the nation in challenging President Trump's administration.
"I don't call that partisan," Johnson said. "I call that responsible."
The parties have to choose their nominee before their candidate can make their case to voters about the best path forward for the AG's Office after Paxton's exit. And the candidates competing in the runoffs for the role will have to build a formidable presence at the state level to gain the opportunity to make that case for their party.
Where everybody knows your name
None of the four candidates in the AG runoffs have successfully run for statewide office. Jaworski was the Democratic nominee for AG in 2024, losing to Paxton.
Running a statewide campaign in Texas is challenging, said Joshua Blank, the research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.
"Most candidates, if they have not run statewide, find themselves bewildered by the amount of ground they have to cover," Blank said.
Familiarity with voters is key in elections. People are more likely to vote for someone whose name they recognize, Blank said. But connecting with voters is a challenge even at the local level. Johnson said voters don't want to cast a random vote.
"I've had to work build it even within my own district as a state senator that I've represented for eight years, he said. "I can go out to eat anywhere and not be recognized."
Roy initially had the edge in the Republican primary race for AG as a member of Congress whose name was frequently in national headlines. A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll had him leading the pack of the four GOP primary candidates, with 33% of likely voters favoring Roy.
Roy did earn about 32% of the votes in the primary — but about 39% of voters checked Middleton's name on their ballots.
Middleton's campaign peppered the airwaves ahead of the primary with ads dubbing him "MAGA Mayes." Ads, Jillson said, can boost candidates' name recognition.
"In a low name recognition race, the person that can establish their name in the voter's minds with a sentence behind it that says 'MAGA Mayes Middleton is a staunch supporter of Donald Trump,' that is enough to power you to first place," he said.
Middleton has frequently pointed to Roy's past criticisms of the president. Roy previously said in a press release that Trump's conduct during the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol during President Joe Biden's inauguration was "clearly impeachable" but called the Democrats' articles of impeachment flawed.
"Our voters are just not going to forgive someone that has spent ten years fighting against the president like Chip Roy has," Middleton said at the Conservative Political Action Conference in March.
Roy told KERA via email after Middleton's remarks his actions in Congress show he's committed to advancing Trump's agenda.
Primary election turnout is low — and primary runoff turnout is even lower. Voters who hit the polls during runoffs tend to be more ideologically extreme, said University of Texas at Dallas political science professor Thomas Gray.
That, Gray said, likely gives Middleton the edge in the runoff.
"If you do get this selection down towards the most passionate, animated voters, that's probably going to benefit him," he said.
Cost of campaigning
Middleton, who runs his family's oil and gas company, has spent $15 million on his campaign. He used his personal wealth to bolster his campaign funds, something Blank said is another boon for Middleton.
"When a candidate has unlimited resources or near unlimited resources to be able to introduce themselves to voters, that's a huge advantage, especially if they're in a primary without any candidates who've ever run statewide before," he said.
Roy's campaign spending has also reached the millions, whereas the Democrats are in the six-figure range.
Campaigning in Texas' large media market is expensive. Democrats often struggle to match Republicans' funding, Jillson said.
"A Democrat that far down the ballot is usually going around the state with a tin cup trying to raise lunch money," he said.
Johnson said he doesn't need to match Republicans' spending to win the AG runoff race or the general election.
"I don't need as much money," he said. "I need enough money. I need to hit a threshold where I can communicate with everybody in Texas who I am. After that, they're just buying the same votes or turning off the same people over and over again."
Jaworski pointed to the controversial issues Middleton has focused on in his ads and campaign. Middleton, a conservative Christian, has campaigned on his legislative record, which includes Senate Bill 8. The law requires that people in public schools, universities, government buildings, prisons and jails to use restrooms and locker rooms that match the sex listed on their birth certificate.
Voters, Jaworski said, are tired of what he describes as extremism.
"It's an opportunity for us to dedicate our dollars in advertising to do the modern equivalent of ending the Red Scare," he said, referring to a controversial anti-Communist movement spearheaded by Republican Sen. Joseph McCarthy of Wisconsin in the 1950s.
Political Launchpad
Democrats' best chance at winning the AG's race, Blank said, is down-ballot momentum from the top of the ticket, the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races.
Leaning toward partisan issues could also benefit candidates across the aisle. It's not just Paxton who has leaned into the political influence of the role — Gray said voters see the AG as a partisan actor too.
"Many voters still approach it as a political partisan position that's meant to deliver policy gains for their party," he said.
As early voting approaches next week, whoever voters choose as their nominee will have to convince Texans they're the best candidate to take over after a decade of Paxton pursuing a conservative agenda as AG. And that candidate will have the opportunity to pursue their own agenda, or step away from the national stage and back toward state affairs.
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