STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
The United States and Iran open negotiations today in a bid to avoid a war. They meet at the urging of Iran's neighbors. The neighbors know Iran has threatened attacks in all directions if Iran is struck in any way. The U.S. does have an aircraft carrier and other forces in the region. In a moment, we'll talk with former U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who helped negotiate with Iran before the last nuclear deal.
LEILA FADEL, HOST:
To set this up and to break this down, we're joined by NPR national security correspondent Greg Myre. Good morning.
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hi, Leila.
FADEL: So, Greg, what is the prospect for a deal here?
MYRE: Well, Leila, there is a chance if these talks, which are taking place in Oman, are limited to Iran's nuclear program. Now, this is what Iran wants. And Iran is in a position of real weakness, and it's likely to make some concessions. It's suffered multiple setbacks in the past two years, and this includes the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign against nuclear facilities last June. But the sides are far apart. And here's the real catch. In most negotiations, if the two sides can't agree, the diplomats go home and decide whether to meet again. This scenario is different. The U.S. has spent a month moving Navy ships and warplanes into the region. If there's no deal, President Trump could unleash attacks on Iran.
FADEL: What if Iran offered a limited nuclear agreement? Would that be enough to satisfy President Trump?
MYRE: Probably not. The U.S. delegation, led by Steve Witkoff, wants to talk about broader issues, and they include limits on Iran's ballistic missiles, the missiles they fired at Israel and U.S. military targets last June. The U.S. also wants Iran to stop supporting militant proxy groups in the region. Also, it's not clear if they'll discuss the thousands of Iranian protesters that were slaughtered by government security forces just last month.
FADEL: Yeah.
MYRE: And Iran has always resisted widening the scope of the talks. I spoke about this with Alex Vatanka, an Iran expert at the Middle East Institute in Washington. He watched the speech this week by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
ALEX VATANKA: I can see he wants to avoid war, but I can't see - I didn't hear a man who's ready to change course. I'm not listening to a man who says, yeah, we've been wrong in the way we've handled our nuclear program. So they're essentially engaged in what I can only call a crisis management - day to day, avoid war.
FADEL: What do we know about the state of Iran's nuclear program right now?
MYRE: Well, we know it was set back. We don't know all the details. Trump claimed last year it was obliterated, but that doesn't really seem to be the case. If so, there'd be no need for additional negotiations or military strikes. The big question is the roughly 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium. It may have been moved out of the nuclear sites before they were bombed or buried inside those facilities that were hit. Only Iran knows the answer, and it isn't talking about it.
FADEL: So if the talks fail and this becomes an armed confrontation, I mean, what might that look like?
MYRE: Well, the U.S. has amassed this large force that could wage an extended fight, but that doesn't mean it would topple the Iranian regime, especially if it's a short battle. And the Iranians have - still have missiles and drones that would threaten U.S. military targets and Israel. The additional risk is that the war could spread to the wider Middle East.
FADEL: Thank you. That's NPR Greg Myre.
MYRE: Sure thing, Leila. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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